Last week, residents of Moscow witnessed dark smoke looming over the city as Ukrainian drones flew above. This marked Ukraine’s most significant drone attack on the Russian capital since the full-scale invasion by Russia in 2022. The attack led to the disruption of hundreds of flights, with a major oil refinery on the outskirts of the city being repeatedly targeted and set ablaze.

In response to the attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned, “If Ukraine is going to burn, your Moscow will burn too.” The proximity of the strikes has heightened concerns among Russians, impacting their daily lives and sense of security.

Analysts suggest that these attacks could exacerbate internal anxieties as the war prolongs. However, the impact of this discontent on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s control remains uncertain.

Historian Anne Applebaum highlighted that Muscovites were experiencing real drone campaigns for the first time since the conflict began. She emphasized that these attacks may not immediately resolve the conflict but could influence a significant shift in the attitudes of influential figures such as the business and political elite who have sway over Putin’s decisions.

Despite the visible effects of the attacks on Moscow, the footage was not aired on national news broadcasts, and residents did not receive any warnings. This lack of information left citizens anxious and uncertain about their safety.

In affected communities, such as Tuapse, where drones have repeatedly struck, residents expressed ongoing fear and a sense of vulnerability. Reports indicate a decline in Putin’s approval ratings, signaling growing dissatisfaction among the populace.

While some pro-war figures in Russia have criticized Putin’s handling of the conflict, it does not necessarily reflect a shift in their support for the war itself. Exiled opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky suggested that a decline in public support for the war could unsettle Putin, potentially leading him to rely more on security services for backing.

As challenges mount for Putin, particularly in managing domestic discontent and the prolonged conflict, the authoritarian leader may resort to harsh measures to maintain control. Experts warn of the possibility of increased aggression from Putin as pressure mounts on him.

The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Putin’s alleged war crimes, including accusations of trafficking Ukrainian children into Russia unlawfully. Applebaum noted that Putin’s position in the war is weakening, but the response to mounting pressure remains unpredictable.