This week marks the beginning of the Toronto International Film Festival, an esteemed event showcasing Canada’s significance in the global film sector.

However, as the U.S. mulls over a potential national incentive program to retain film productions within the country, there is speculation about how Canada, which hosts numerous U.S.-based film sets, may be affected.

President Donald Trump recently highlighted bipartisan support for establishing a federal tax incentive aimed at keeping film production in the U.S. and preventing it from shifting “to Canada and other Countries.”

Following a meeting with actor Jon Voigt, Trump expressed his concerns, stating that the U.S. film industry is facing a significant decline and emphasized the detrimental impact on California.

The proposed legislation, labeled the Motion Picture, Television and Entertainment Revitalization Act by Trump, has generated considerable interest among industry professionals and advocates in the U.S. who have long advocated for such investments.

Data from the Otis College of Art and Design reveals a substantial decline in employment within Los Angeles County’s film and television sector, with a 26 percent decrease by the end of 2025 compared to 2010 and a 38 percent drop from a mid-2022 peak.

In 2025, Greater Los Angeles witnessed a 61 percent decrease in total shoot days for feature film and TV productions compared to 2021, as reported by FilmLA, an organization monitoring production volumes in Los Angeles and beyond.

Although there has been an overall decline in TV production, industry data indicates that the productions that are being produced are increasingly finding homes not just in L.A., but also in other U.S. states and the U.K.

According to FilmLA, in 2024, approximately 25 percent of U.S.-scripted TV series distributed were filmed in Los Angeles, while 12.5 percent were shot in the U.K., 9.6 percent in Georgia, and 8.4 percent in British Columbia.

The U.K. surpassed Canadian provinces as a preferred filming location for streaming TV series, cable TV series, and movies with theatrical releases in 2024. However, Canada led in made-for-TV movies, accounting for about 26 percent of TV films distributed the same year.

Despite Canada not dominating the film and TV production market of U.S. studios, the country has been singled out in the discourse initiated by Trump.

The Battle Between Canada and the U.S. for Filming Locations

The rivalry between U.S. politicians, Hollywood labor groups, and Canada over filming locations dates back to the 1990s and early 2000s.

In 1997, Canada became one of the first countries to introduce a federal tax credit to attract foreign productions, differentiating itself from previous approaches such as those adopted by New York in the 1960s. This direct financial incentive covered a portion of qualifying Canadian labor on sets and was swiftly followed by a similar incentive in B.C.

The move drew ire from Hollywood, resulting in protests and calls for countervailing tariffs against U.S. productions that had filmed in Canada with subsidies, endorsed by the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) in 2001.

Although there have been instances where Canada secured productions that would have otherwise gone to the U.S., opposition to Canada’s incentives led other states and countries worldwide to implement or expand their tax incentive programs.

As of May, there were over 120 production incentives globally, with nearly every Canadian province offering incentive programs mainly in the form of tax credits. The majority of U.S. states also provide their own tax credits, including an expanded program in California.

Despite the availability of incentives worldwide and the U.K. attracting major film productions such as the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday, Canada continues to face scrutiny from the U.S., with experts dismissing it as political rhetoric.

Cynthia Littleton, editor in chief of Variety, views Trump’s latest move within the context of upcoming midterm elections and the broader push to bolster American manufacturing.

Previous trade tensions have seen Trump threaten a 100 percent tariff on movies filmed outside the U.S. in May 2025, underscoring the ongoing complexities in the film industry landscape.

Future Prospects for Film Sets in Canada

It remains uncertain how a U.S. federal incentive could impact Canada, as highlighted by Reynolds Mastin, president and CEO of the Canadian Media Producers Association (CMPA).

In 2024/25, foreign film and TV productions in Canada generated over 97,000 jobs and contributed significantly to the