In the previous federal election, the focus in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to standing up for Canada against Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric of integrating Canada as the 51st state. The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment, achieving their best result in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
As the provincial election commences today, the looming question is whether the U.S. president will once again play a significant role. The recently imposed tariffs have taken center stage in pre-election discussions, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to protect Quebec from the economic repercussions.
Economic stability has emerged as a crucial topic for voters, with health care, housing, and living costs being top concerns before the trade war escalation. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), facing a dissatisfied electorate after two terms in power, may benefit the most if voters prioritize economic stability.
Quebec is projected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs due to its reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, as highlighted by a recent report from Oxford Economics. Parti Québécois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon reassured voters by stating that a referendum would not be pursued until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing that the election is about Quebec’s future.
The CAQ’s Christine Fréchette, holding the advantage of being in power during this turbulent period, has introduced financial aid programs for businesses affected by the tariffs. While the CAQ hopes Fréchette will follow in Carney’s footsteps, polling analyst Philippe Fournier noted differences in their situations, emphasizing the lack of a comparable opponent to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging her ability to navigate the current situation effectively. Meanwhile, other parties have put forward proposals to address the economic challenges posed by the tariffs. The leader who can reassure the electorate amid the uncertainty caused by Trump’s policies is likely to gain an edge, according to Fournier.
As the campaign unfolds, the ability to address the economic impact of the tariffs and provide stability in turbulent times will be key for the parties vying for voters’ support.