Russia perceives itself to be engaged in a conflict with NATO allies, strategically positioning itself for potential military confrontation. While the situation has not yet escalated to direct military action, the Kremlin is actively allocating resources to conduct probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying vulnerabilities and testing boundaries.

Russia has been carrying out a covert campaign in Europe, targeting NATO powers through acts of sabotage. These actions include attacks on Polish railway lines, attempts to disrupt undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and an increasingly aggressive campaign by the GRU to disrupt supply chains supporting Ukraine. The Kremlin aims to raise the costs for NATO’s support of Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western nations.

Despite these actions, Russia has avoided crossing any threshold that would provoke a military response from NATO. By using third-party proxies, often recruited from social media, Russia maintains a degree of deniability and flexibility, making attribution challenging.

While the sabotage attacks across Europe lack coordination, they do not always align with the level of support each country provides to Ukraine. For instance, Germany, France, and Poland have faced more attacks due to their significant aid to Ukraine compared to the UK, which has received less physical targeting despite substantial military and economic support.

Russia’s intelligence efforts in the UK have been notable, with resources dedicated to surveillance and data gathering, including recent incursions such as the Yantar surveillance vessel in British waters. However, disruptions in its intelligence networks in 2022, when European countries expelled diplomats linked to the GRU, have forced Russia to rely on local proxies, reducing coordination and effectiveness of attacks.

As Russia works to rebuild its networks, the risk to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK, remains. Although the attacks may currently lack coordination and effectiveness, Russia’s adaptive nature poses a continuing threat to security in the region.