As the Premier League season nears its conclusion there is only really one race still going. With Liverpool set to lift the trophy and Ipswich and Leicester following Southampton back into the Championship, it’s all about the race for European qualification places.
We are very used to hearing chat about the top four, with the allure of the Champions League the goal for many clubs. But this season, it is actually the top five that will provide a ticket to Europe’s best club competition in 2025/26.
That is due to the strong performances of English clubs across UEFA’s competitions this season which have lifted the Premier League’s coefficient ranking to secure one of the European Performance Spots (EPS). The fifth automatic Champions League place was confirmed after Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid last week.
That is where the simple bit ends, unfortunately, with a LOT of different permutations to consider elsewhere. What we do know is that there will be between eight and 11 English teams in Europe next season.
While there will be a minimum of five English clubs in the Champions League next season, there could even be seven. For that to happen, Arsenal or Aston Villa would have to win this season’s Champions League and finish outside the top four in the Premier League and Manchester United or Tottenham would have to win the Europa League.
With five Champions League spots, the two Europa League places would normally go to the side which finishes fifth in the Premier League and the winners of the FA Cup.
If the FA Cup winner has already qualified via the league, then their place will drop to the next highest-placed side in the league.
However, if Chelsea win the Conference League and fail to qualify for the Europa League via their league position then a third Europa League place will be awarded to English sides. The Blues are the strong favourites to win the Conference League and are currently in sixth place in the Premier League with six games left to play.
Another permutation arises if Villa win the Champions League and finish fifth, which would mean that only the FA Cup winners will qualify for the Europa League. Unai Emery’s side, who have the second leg of the Champions League quarter final against Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday night, are seventh in the Premier League, but have won four on the bounce to get back into the mix.
There will only be one English club in the Conference League next season. At present that is Newcastle, thanks to their win over Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final, but they are on course to qualify for the Champions League instead, sitting fourth and with a game in-hand which they play against Crystal Palace on Wednesday night.
1. Liverpool – P32 – 72pts
2. Arsenal – P32 – 63pts
3. Nottingham Forest – P32 – 57pts
4. Newcastle – P31 – 56pts
5. Man City – P32 – 55pts
6. Chelsea – P32 – 54pts
7. Aston Villa – P32 – 54pts
8. Bournemouth – P32 – 48pts
9. Fulham – P32 – 48pts
10. Brighton – P32 – 48pts
11. Brentford – P32 – 43pts
12. Crystal Palace – P32 – 43pts
If the Magpies qualify for the Champions League or Europa League via the league – which looks very likely right now – then their Conference League spot will be allocated via the Premier League, to whichever side finishes seventh.
But the FA Cup can throw a spanner into the works. That’s because three of the four sides left in the competition – Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa – are also in the mix for European places via the league. If City, Forest or Villa win the FA Cup and finish in the top six then seventh place in the Premier League would be enough for a place in the Europa League, pushing the Conference League spot down a place further.
For there to be 11 English teams in European competitions next season, the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League all need to be won by Premier League sides PLUS a number of league placings need to line up.
That is, of course, unlikely, but if Villa win the Champions League, United or Spurs win the Europa League and Chelsea lift the Conference League AND all three competition winners finish outside the top six then it’s game on, with potentially Bournemouth (8th), Fulham (9th), Brighton (10th) and Brentford (11th) benefiting greatly.
In short, there are a lot of permutations and combinations to look out for over the coming days and weeks. Things will become clearer by this weekend, when the quarter finals of the European competitions will be completed.
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