Leading up to the forthcoming announcement of a new Churchill Falls agreement, there were uncertainties regarding the potential impact of a change in leadership in Quebec. However, a political expert has indicated that Ottawa’s involvement will significantly complicate any attempts to void the deal.

Describing it as a substantial investment in renewable energy, Dalhousie University’s political science professor, Lori Turnbull, highlighted the federal government’s role as investors, emphasizing that their direct participation goes beyond mere brokerage between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec.

Current opinion polls in Quebec show the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading. Despite the PQ’s historical opposition to the Churchill Falls agreement, the recent agreement has seemingly altered their stance. During the announcement, Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette faced questions about the agreement’s fate under a PQ-led government, suggesting the party’s inclination to reconsider the deal.

In response, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon refuted Fréchette’s remarks, accusing her of hastening the agreement for electoral purposes. He stated that the PQ would support the agreement if it benefits Quebec, indicating a potential shift in their position.

According to Turnbull, should the PQ attempt to annul the agreement, the federal government is likely to intervene to prevent such actions, emphasizing the significance of Ottawa’s interest in the deal.

Joël-Denis Bellavance, a journalist covering Churchill Falls for La Presse, echoed the sentiment that the agreement is advantageous for Quebec, labeling it a mutually beneficial deal that offers unparalleled advantages. He stressed the necessity for Quebec to endorse the agreement, considering Churchill Falls’ substantial contribution to Quebec’s electricity production.

Bellavance also linked the deal to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s vision of positioning Canada as an energy superpower. With potential U.S. tariffs looming, the energy deal gains heightened importance, potentially influencing negotiations with the U.S.

While the federal government’s involvement is deemed significant, Bellavance believes Hydro-Québec will play a decisive role in persuading the PQ to uphold the agreement, underscoring the challenges of securing a superior alternative. He predicts that the PQ will ultimately have no choice but to uphold the signed agreement.