Health authorities combatting the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are employing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential virus transmission areas, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and associated researchers.
This innovative strategy, a first in Ebola response efforts, comes amidst challenges in containing what the WHO has labeled as the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak in history. With confirmed cases in six provinces, over 6,250 individuals infected, and 3,039 fatalities since the outbreak’s declaration on May 15, the situation remains critical according to the latest governmental statistics.
This 17th outbreak in Congo, caused by the Bundibugyo Ebola strain lacking approved vaccines or treatments, underscores the significance of predicting outbreak patterns and efficiently allocating surveillance and response resources.
Olivier Le Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the crucial role of population movements in outbreaks, particularly in the current epidemic. By analyzing mobile phone data, responders can identify transmission risks in seemingly distant yet interconnected regions based on travel patterns, offering a more nuanced risk assessment.
The data analysis, conducted by the Swedish non-profit Flowminder, utilizes anonymized mobile phone records to estimate people’s movements across the country. Flowminder assures that only aggregated and anonymized data is shared, emphasizing privacy and data security.
Flowminder’s initial study in June focused on outbreak origins in Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, tracking travel patterns from these areas. Subsequent analyses revealed significant flows to neighboring regions, with all top destinations reporting Ebola cases by June’s end.
Expanding the analysis to at-risk regions, Flowminder highlighted Kisangani, a pivotal transport junction connecting eastern and western Congo, as a potential hotspot. The data indicated a notable risk in Kisangani, prompting reinforced operations before the first cases emerged.
Recent studies have underscored connections between Kisangani, Kinshasa, and other settlements along the Congo River, emphasizing potential transmission risks to Congo’s capital and beyond. As the WHO warns of spreading risks to Kinshasa and neighboring nations, efforts are ongoing to enhance data coverage by collaborating with multiple telecom operators.
Despite its benefits, the analysis’s scope is limited to data from Congolese mobile networks, offering a partial view of cross-border movements. Collaborative endeavors with additional operators aim to enhance coverage and obtain more comprehensive data for improved outbreak response.