The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further leading into 2027 and may become the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events next year, announced the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday.

Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass any previous occurrences since monitoring began, indicating unprecedented intensity.

The WMO reported a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This high level of confidence in the forecast is a first for the agency.

A powerful El Niño can cause significant shifts in global precipitation and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather events like typhoons.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the exceptional nature of the unfolding El Niño phenomenon, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures.

El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to a year, impacting rainfall and drought conditions in Latin American regions.

This year’s El Niño has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions, resulting in a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.

The WMO anticipates the peak of this El Niño towards the end of this year, with lasting effects into 2027 and a subsequent rise in global temperatures. In response, the organization is enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to address the potential impacts.

Secretary-General Saulo underlined the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with partners within the UN and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.